Delphi Method

Delphi Method is a structured forecasting and decision-making technique that collects and synthesizes expert opinions for decision-making research. It is located in SPSSAU -> Comprehensive Evaluation -> Delphi Method.

SPSSAU Operations

To use this method, paste (or edit) the expert rating data into the data frame and click the 'Start' button.

SPSSAU Data Format

In Delphi Method, each row represents one expert, each column represents an indicator, and the numbers denote expert ratings, typically using a 1~9 scale, where 1 represents the worst and 9 represents the best.

Algorithm

1.Mean

Mean is used to determine the central tendency of expert opinions:

$$\overline{x}=\frac{1}{n}\sum _{i=1}^n{x}_i$$

\overline{x} is the mean, n is the number of experts, and x_i represents the rating given by expert i.

2.Standard Deviation

The standard deviation measures the dispersion of expert opinions:

$$s=\sqrt{\frac{1}{n-1}\sum _{i=1}^n(x_i-\overline{x}{)}^2}$$

s is the standard deviation, n is the number of experts, and x_i represents the rating given by expert i.

3.Coefficient of Variation (CV)

CV represents the proportion of standard deviation relative to the mean, reflecting the relative variability of data:

$$CV=\frac{s}{\overline{x}}$$

4.Full Score Frequency

Full Score Frequency calculates the proportion of experts giving the highest rating:

F=\frac{n_f}{n}, F represents the full score frequency, n_f is the number of experts who gave the highest rating (determined as the maximum score identified by the algorithm), and n is the total number of experts.

5.Others

In Delphi Method, SPSSAU outputs Kendall Coordination Coefficient and percentile values. For more details, refer to the Kendall Coordination Coefficient and Descriptive Analysis manuals.